Case studies and modelling of the northern, central southern corridors

Looking simultaneously at the northern Mombasa corridor and the central and southern Dar es Salaam corridors, it becomes clear that these three routes each structure, in their own way, the geography of oil supplies to the Eastern DRC. While the northern Mombasa corridor is characterized by a high degree of oligopolistic concentration, fuelled by the dominance of a small number of operators with exclusive bargaining power, the central and southern Dar es Salaam corridors reflect more fragmented competition, where the diversification of players and transport modes appears to be a factor of potential resilience and logistical cost reduction.This methodological triangulation - between documentary data, formal modeling and field testimonials - guarantees the robustness of the analyses and the relevance of the recommendations. It directly addresses the five specific objectives: identifying instruments of power; resituating the geopolitical and institutional context; assessing the influence of market and technological changes; exploring logistical and institutional implications; and measuring the strategic and socio-economic impact of dependence.