How the deformation of Anatolian-Aegean-Pelagonian system develops: main effects on seismic activity

The spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes since 1600 in the eastern and central Mediterranean regions can provide important insights into the deformation pattern of the Anatolian-Aegean-Pelagonian belt during the period considered. The fact that strong seismicity affected the Aegean Arc and the Balkan Peninsula over a long time interval (1600-1938) while no strong earthquakes struck the Northern Anatolian fault suggests that during that phase the Anatolian system has undergone a strong deformation and westward displacement without decoupling from the European domain. The tectonic context and the seismicity patterns in the various zones has undergone a drastic change after the failure of the NorthAnatolian fault (1939-1968). The most significant feature is the drastic decrease of seismicity in some sectors of the Aegean Arc and in the periAdriatic zones. Some remarks are made about the tectonic mechanism that may have caused such effect. The evidence and the arguments here reported may help to tentatively recognize the next development of seismic activity in the main tectonic zones of the study area.