Penguin Books Ltd Black Swan Boek

Bol

The phenomenal International bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. their impact is huge; theyre impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide . . . I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person Will Self, Independent on Sunday He leaps like some superhero of the mind Boyd Tonkin, Independent

Stumpel

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great\'s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they\'re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the \'experts\', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

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