Predicting the Past: Counterfactual History from Antiquity to French Revolution

Why do we wonder “what if?” about the past? In his pathbreaking, two-volume study, Gavriel Rosenfeld provides the first comprehensive examination of counterfactual history from its inception to the present day. Surveying more than three millennia of western history, Rosenfeld challenges the longstanding claim that historical speculation is contrary to legitimate historical inquiry. He documents the astounding ubiquity of counterfactual thought in the western tradition, showing how historians, theologians, politicians, philosophers, journalists, and novelists wondered “what if?” about the events of their day. In Volume I, Rosenfeld surveys the period between antiquity and the late 18th century, examining hundreds of classic texts – from Herodotus’s Histories to Edmund Burke’s Reflections on the Revolution in France – to shed light on the missed opportunities and close calls of western history. By showing how counterfactual history first developed and then gradually spread throughout western culture, Rosenfeld demonstrates that imagining what might have happened is essential for understanding what did. This is the first out of two volumes. The second volume (978-3-11-914351-6) can be accessed here: . Also available as a two-volume set (978-3-11-224603-0):