Regional Security and the Future of Central Asia

The breakup of the USSR created a Central Asian security complex or sphere of influence consisting of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, this security complex has tended to distance itself from a Russian-centered approach to foreign relations, has rejected involvement with a Turkey-oriented sphere of influence, and has shifted toward an Iran-oriented security complex. A major reason for these developments has been the activities of the three rival powers-Iran, Turkey, and Russia. As Peimani explains, these states have strong long-term interests in the region; earlier rivalries, which were dormant under Soviet rule, have reawakened since the breakup of the USSR. While Russia attempts to reincorporate Central Asia into its security complex, Iran and Turkey seek to include it in their spheres of influence. The rivalry among these states will largely determine the future development of the region and the individual states.