the Effects of 2025 Section 232: Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing

This book examines the short-run effects of the June 2025 doubling of Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 percent on U.S. manufacturing. It distinguishes between two opposing channels: import protection, which benefits directly shielded metal producers, and rising input costs, which burden downstream industries relying on steel and aluminum as inputs. Using a continuous difference-in-differences framework following Flaaen and Pierce (2024), the study analyzes an industry-level panel at the NAICS-4 level from January 2023 through December 2025, covering employment, producer prices, and industrial production. The clearest effect identified is a relative increase in producer prices within the steel sector, though this result is driven by a small number of highly exposed industries and does not generalize across manufacturing. No significant effects emerge for employment or industrial production, and the input cost channel remains statistically insignificant throughout. The book offers an early empirical assessment of the 2025 tariff episode, suggesting that price responses materialize more quickly than quantity adjustments.