the impact of financial crisis on German freight transport

In 2008, in the wake of the global economic crisis triggered by the financial crisis, a report was drawn up to forecast trends in German freight transport. A sub-contract for this report was awarded to Prof. Dr Werner Rothengatter, who published his findings in 'Simulation of Structural Change Scenarios'. Rothengatter uses three scenarios to construct his forecasts: the status quo scenario, the baseline scenario (excluding the global economic crisis) and the Schumpeter scenario. The aim of this paper is to examine these forecasts for consistency and validity. To this end, the transport interdependence forecasts for the years 2025 and 2030 from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) are presented and analysed for comparison. The most recent data from the Federal Statistical Office and data from 'Transport in Figures 2013/2014' by the German Institute for Economic Research were evaluated using regression analysis. New forecasts have been developed based on the results of the regression analysis, which are also used for comparison with Rothengatter's forecasts.